Kenyan consumers are facing a growing milk supply problem, with shortages reported in several parts of the country and retail prices rising sharply in some markets. The situation, which has persisted for about three months, has been linked mainly to prolonged dry conditions, inadequate animal feed and reduced deliveries to milk processors. Recent market checks have shown that the impact is becoming particularly visible in Nairobi and other urban centres, where some consumers are paying significantly more for smaller quantities of milk. 

The current situation has attracted national attention because milk is one of the most frequently purchased food products in Kenyan households. It is consumed directly, used to prepare tea and porridge, and forms part of the daily diet of many families. As supplies decline, households that depend on fresh and packaged milk are being forced to either pay higher prices, buy smaller quantities or search for alternative suppliers.

Recent reports have documented increases of more than 30 per cent in some locations and for some forms of fresh milk. A September 16 spot check reported a 500ml packet selling for as much as Sh90 in several Nairobi neighbourhoods. In Pipeline, one hotel outlet was reported to be selling fresh milk at Sh110 per litre, compared with Sh60 previously displayed on its price notice. 

The increases, however, are not uniform across the country or across all brands. The Kenya Dairy Board has said that prices remain generally stable in many areas, while acknowledging upward movements in places experiencing supply constraints. This distinction is important because some consumers may be paying considerably more than the national or regional average depending on where they buy milk and whether they are purchasing fresh, pasteurised, extended-shelf-life or UHT milk. 

 *Why is there a milk shortage?* 

One of the main reasons identified by government and dairy-sector officials is the prolonged dry spell affecting many parts of Kenya. Reduced rainfall has affected pasture and fodder availability, leaving farmers with fewer affordable options for feeding dairy cows.

The Principal Secretary for Livestock Development, Jonathan Mueke, said formal milk deliveries to processors fell from 84.4 million litres in June 2026 to 81.3 million litres in July. That represents a 3.7 per cent decline. Preliminary indications at the time also pointed to another decline in August. 

The problem begins at farm level. When pasture becomes scarce, farmers have to purchase hay, silage and commercial animal feeds. Those additional expenses can be difficult for small-scale farmers to absorb. If farmers cannot provide enough feed, cows produce less milk.

Reports from different dairy-producing regions illustrate the extent of the challenge. In Nyeri, for example, one dairy operator reported that milk collection had fallen from approximately 10,000 litres per day earlier in the year to about 6,000 litres. 

In Nandi, a dairy cooperative was reported to be receiving less than 2,000 litres per day compared with approximately 10,000 litres previously. Such reductions can severely affect the ability of cooperatives and processors to maintain regular supplies to urban markets. 

 *High cost of animal feeds* 

Another major factor is the increasing cost of feeding dairy cows.

During a prolonged dry period, farmers cannot rely on natural grass alone. They have to buy supplementary feeds to maintain their animals and milk production. Reports from the North Rift indicated that some animal feeds had risen from about Sh1,800 to Sh2,400, while the price of hay reportedly more than doubled in some areas, from around Sh100 to Sh250 per bale. 

For farmers who operate on small margins, such increases can make dairy production increasingly expensive.

The economic calculation is straightforward: if feeding a cow becomes more expensive while the animal produces less milk, the farmer's production costs rise at exactly the time output is falling.

This creates pressure throughout the dairy chain. Farmers need adequate prices to remain in production, cooperatives need sufficient volumes to operate efficiently, processors need enough raw milk to manufacture and package products, while retailers must obtain supplies at prices that allow them to remain in business.

Brokers and competition for raw milk

The government has also pointed to competition between formal processors and milk brokers as another factor affecting the formal supply chain.

Agriculture Cabinet Secretary Mutahi Kagwe said brokers have been offering some farmers higher prices than cooperatives, resulting in milk being diverted away from processing plants. According to the government explanation, this means that milk may still be available in some rural areas while supermarkets and formal retail outlets experience shortages. 

This creates a complicated situation.

A shortage on supermarket shelves does not necessarily mean that every cow in the country is producing less milk or that there is no milk at all. Instead, the problem can involve both production and distribution.

Where farmers receive attractive offers from brokers, they may sell directly to them. That can reduce the volume reaching formal processors and ultimately affect the amount of packaged milk available in supermarkets.

Consumers are feeling the impact

The shortage has become increasingly visible to consumers.

In Nairobi, reports have indicated that some supermarkets have experienced empty or partially stocked shelves. Some retailers have reportedly restricted the amount of milk individual customers can purchase.

In certain outlets, customers were reportedly limited to one litre from milk dispensers, while some wholesalers limited packaged milk purchases to five packets instead of allowing customers to buy a full carton. 

Such restrictions are normally introduced when retailers want to prevent a small number of customers from buying large quantities and leaving other consumers without supplies.

The situation has also affected consumers outside Nairobi. In Kisumu, for example, a Kenya News Agency spot check found empty shelves in several shops and supermarkets, while some sellers had increased the price of a 500ml packet from around Sh50 to Sh60. 

In parts of the North Rift, reports placed the price of a 500ml packet at between Sh53 and Sh60, with some brands increasing from earlier prices of around Sh50 and Sh52. 

These figures demonstrate that the price increase differs significantly depending on the location, brand and type of milk being purchased.

Why some prices have risen by more than 30 per cent

The most dramatic increases have been reported in individual retail outlets rather than representing a uniform nationwide increase.

For example, if a litre of fresh milk rises from Sh60 to Sh110, the increase is approximately 83 per cent. Similarly, a 500ml packet rising from Sh60 to Sh90 represents a 50 per cent increase.

The September 15 Citizen TV report specifically highlighted price increases of more than 30 per cent linked to the shortage. 

These increases show how strongly scarcity can affect prices at the retail level.

When retailers receive smaller quantities from suppliers, competition for the available milk increases. Retailers also face transportation, refrigeration, electricity and other operating costs. If wholesale or procurement prices increase, some of those costs are passed on to consumers.

However, it is important not to assume that every milk product in every Kenyan shop has increased by more than 30 per cent. The Kenya Dairy Board has maintained that the situation involves temporary and uneven supply constraints, with pasteurised milk generally more affected than UHT and other long-life products. 

Impact on families

For ordinary households, the increase is significant because milk is a regular expenditure rather than an occasional purchase.

A family that buys milk every day will feel even a small increase over an entire month. If parents previously spent Sh60 daily on a litre and the price rises to Sh90, the additional expenditure would be Sh30 per day, or approximately Sh900 over 30 days.

Families may respond by buying smaller quantities, reducing the frequency of milk purchases or switching between brands.

Parents with school-going children may face an additional challenge because milk is commonly used in breakfast meals and school-related food preparation. Families that previously bought several packets at once may now find themselves purchasing milk in smaller quantities because of both price and availability.

Small restaurants, hotels, tea vendors and other businesses are also affected. These enterprises use large amounts of milk and cannot always absorb sudden increases in input costs without adjusting their own prices.

Farmers face a different side of the crisis

Although consumers are paying more, the situation does not automatically mean that every dairy farmer is benefiting from higher retail prices.

Farmers face higher production costs, especially for feed, transportation and farm maintenance.

At the same time, the price paid to a farmer is different from the final retail price paid by a consumer. Between the farm and the consumer are collection centres, cooperatives, processors, transporters, distributors and retailers.

There are also cases where farmers have received better farm-gate prices because supplies are tight.

In Murang'a, the Murang'a County Creameries Union increased its farm-gate price to Sh49 per litre in September, up from Sh42 in June. The union had increased the price to Sh44 in July and Sh47 in August. 

This demonstrates that the shortage is producing different effects at different points in the dairy value chain.

Government response

The government and Kenya Dairy Board have said they are taking measures to address the supply problem.

One of the proposed interventions is to improve availability and affordability of animal feeds. Agriculture officials have discussed measures involving maize and other feed inputs, while the government has also pointed to the need to address the diversion of milk from formal processors. 

The Kenya Dairy Board has also cited programmes involving milk coolers and dairy herd improvement, including subsidised sexed semen, as part of longer-term efforts to improve production and strengthen the dairy value chain. 

The expectation is that improved rainfall will eventually increase pasture and fodder availability, helping farmers restore milk production.

The Kenya Dairy Board has warned, however, that consumers may have to wait longer before supplies return to normal. On September 11, the Board indicated that the shortage could persist for at least another month. 

 *What happens when the rains return?* 

Rainfall will be an important factor in determining how quickly the situation improves.

Adequate rainfall can restore pasture, support fodder production and reduce farmers' dependence on expensive commercial feeds. If cows receive adequate nutrition, milk production can gradually increase.

However, recovery may not happen immediately.

Farmers need time to restore fodder reserves, improve animal nutrition and rebuild production. Processors also need adequate raw milk volumes before supermarket supplies can return to previous levels.

The Kenya Dairy Board has indicated that the October-November-December rainfall season could help improve pasture and fodder availability and consequently support milk production.

The shortage and Kenya's wider food economy

The milk shortage illustrates how weather conditions can affect food prices.

A drought does not only affect crops. Livestock production can also suffer when pasture and water become scarce.

The dairy sector is particularly sensitive because cows need regular nutrition to maintain consistent milk production. A disruption lasting several weeks or months can therefore create consequences that extend from farmers to processors and eventually to consumers.

The current situation also demonstrates the importance of maintaining sufficient fodder reserves during periods when rainfall is favourable.

Farmers who prepared silage and hay ahead of the dry season have, in some cases, been able to maintain more stable production than those who depended heavily on naturally available pasture.