Aasai

AFTER the withdrawal of the DCP candidate in the Mbeere North by-election, former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua has found himself in a difficult position to show that he is still a popular figure in Mount Kenya politics. Duncan Mbui, who was said to be planning to fly the DCP flag in the upcoming election, withdrew on Sunday.

 He promised to contest as an independent candidate, claiming his move was due to the opposition deciding to support the DP in the election. The DP candidate is Newton Karish who is also a councilor for Muminji ward. Former MP for the area Geoffrey Ruku, who is now the Public Service Minister, was elected in 2022 on a DP ticket. Apart from Mr Mbui and Karish, Leonard Muthende will fly the flag of the ruling UDA party. 

The DCP’s move not to field a candidate in Mbeere North is being viewed by pundits as a double-edged sword – it could either hurt Mr Gachagua or remove the threat to the opposition which could have divided the vote by fielding multiple candidates. Analysts say that if a UDA candidate wins the seat, then Mr Gachagua will lose popularity considering that it will undermine his claim that he is the kingpin of Mount Kenya politics. 

They say it will be a bigger blow to Mr Gachagua if Mr Mbui wins the seat as an independent candidate because he will not have the authority to claim it as a DCP victory. “Gachagua is trying to back down so that he does not appear selfish in the eyes of other parties. Mr Gachagua fears the opposition will disintegrate because the waves of 2027 are bigger than the by-elections,” says political analyst Javas Bigambo. 

Furthermore, analysts say, if Mr Muthende benefits from Mr Mbui splitting the vote, and UDA wins, Mr Gachagua will not have his own considering he has always said his goal is to eliminate UDA from Mount Kenya. Likewise, it may be seen as a double standard for the DCP if it has Malava as its candidate while it does not have a candidate for Mbeere Kaskazini. 

Given that Mr Gachagua is not very popular in the West, there has been pressure from the opposition to vacate the seat to DAP-Kenya, whose leader Eugene Wamalwa is one of the leaders of the opposition coalition. In the Malava constituency, DCP has nominated MP Edgar Busia while DAP-K is backing Seth Panyako. Analyst Martin Andati says it is not cowardice for Gachagua to take the step but a strategy to ensure that the seat does not go to the government.

 “I am sure that even in Malava, DCP will withdraw its candidate and vacate DAP-K and it is clear that the relationship between Cleophas Malala and Rigathi is not good,” said Mr Andati. When he formed DCP, Mr Gachagua said that it is the Mlimani party and has been claiming that other small parties are sponsored by President William Ruto to divide the Mt Kenya votes. “That is his strategy to divide the Mt Kenya votes and we have discovered his trick of sponsoring small parties,” said Mr Gachagua, on July 18 this year. 

He has been particularly seen targeting Jubilee and some smaller parties in Mount Kenya.DP is an independent party and is led by Justin Muturi, so even if it manages to win Mbeere North, it will not be as sweet as that of DCP which would have the opportunity to have its first MP since it was launched on May 17 this year.