Kenya’s Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority (EPRA) Director General, Engineer Edward Mwirigi Kinyua, has explained the sharp increase in fuel prices, pointing to rising international petroleum costs and disruptions linked to the conflict in the Middle East. The announcement has drawn attention from motorists, public transport operators, businesses and households concerned about the impact of expensive fuel on the cost of living.

On October 14, 2026, EPRA announced new maximum retail prices for petrol, diesel and kerosene, which took effect on October 15 and will remain in force until November 14, 2026. According to reports on the announcement, petrol in Nairobi increased by KSh 12.93 per litre, diesel by KSh 9.90 and kerosene by KSh 28.49. Kinyua attributed the increase to higher import costs, with September recording a particularly sharp rise in the cost of petroleum products entering Kenya.The explanation comes at a time when many Kenyans are already concerned about transport expenses, food prices and the financial pressure facing small businesses. Because fuel is used to transport agricultural produce, operate machinery and move people and goods, changes at the pump can have consequences that extend far beyond motorists.

1. Kinyua attributes the increase to rising international fuel costs

According to reports published on October 14, Kinyua explained that the latest fuel price increase was largely driven by a significant rise in the cost of petroleum products imported into Kenya. He said September had been particularly difficult because of the international market pressures associated with the conflict in the Middle East.

Kenya depends heavily on imported refined petroleum products to meet its domestic energy needs. This means that international developments can affect prices paid by Kenyan consumers, even when the country has not experienced a shortage of fuel at local filling stations.Kerosene

KSh 219.87/L

Increase of KSh 28.49 per litre

These are Nairobi's maximum permitted pump prices for October 15–November 14, 2026.

The figures show that kerosene experienced the largest increase per litre, followed by petrol and diesel. This is particularly important for households that use kerosene for cooking or lighting, as well as small businesses whose operations depend on petroleum products.

For motorists, the increase in petrol prices means that filling a vehicle's tank now requires more money than it did during the previous pricing period. Diesel users, including commercial transport operators and some agricultural businesses, must also adjust their budgets.Import costs recorded a substantial increase

Kinyua's explanation was supported by figures showing that the average landed cost of imported petroleum products increased considerably between August and September 2026.

According to the reported figures, the average landed cost of super petrol rose by 11.81%, from US$874.26 per cubic metre in August to US$977.55 in September.

Diesel's average landed cost increased by approximately 11.32%, from US$957.05 to US$1,065.38 per cubic metre. Kerosene rose by 9.41%, from US$1,003.87 to US$1,098.31 per cubic metre.

These increases help explain why consumers are facing higher prices at local filling stations.Kinyua linked the increase in import costs to these international pressures, noting that the price of super petrol on the international market had risen to approximately US$1,300 per metric tonne, compared with about US$600 per metric tonne when the crisis began.

This comparison illustrates the scale of the price pressure described by the EPRA director general.

When international prices rise, importers must pay more to secure petroleum products. Those additional costs can eventually be reflected in the domestic pricing formula.Government reduces VAT to cushion consumers

Despite the rise in international import costs, the government has maintained a tax-relief measure intended to reduce the burden on consumers.

Kinyua said the government had reduced the value-added tax (VAT) applicable to super petrol, diesel and kerosene from 16% to 8%. The measure was reported as extended until January 14, 2027.

The reduction is intended to moderate the impact of higher international petroleum prices on local consumers.

Without such relief, the amount payable at the pump could face additional pressure. However, a tax reduction does not necessarily guarantee that fuel prices will fall, because other components of the pricing formula may increase by more than the relief offsets.How EPRA determines fuel prices in Kenya

The Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority is responsible for determining maximum wholesale and retail prices for regulated petroleum products under Kenya's petroleum pricing framework.

EPRA uses a formula that considers the landed cost of imported products alongside other approved costs and charges. These include handling at the port, storage, transportation, inventory financing, applicable taxes and wholesale margins.

Retail prices also account for transportation from secondary storage depots to filling stations and approved retail operating and investment margins.The prices are reviewed monthly, with the published rates applying to a specified pricing period. The latest review took effect on October 15, 2026.

It is important to understand that the announced figures are maximum permitted retail prices, rather than mandatory prices that every station must charge. Retailers may sell below the ceiling, but they must comply with the applicable regulatory limits.

The pricing system also explains why prices can differ between towns. Transportation and distribution expenses vary according to location, meaning that a litre of fuel in Mombasa may cost less than the same product in Nairobi or another inland town.Why kerosene prices require particular attention

The increase in kerosene prices is especially significant because the product is used by some lower-income households and small businesses.

Kerosene can serve as a cooking or lighting fuel, making its price an important household expense for families that rely on it.

Kinyua also explained that EPRA considers the price difference between kerosene and automotive fuels when reviewing prices. A large gap can create incentives for fuel adulteration, whereby cheaper products are improperly mixed with other petroleum products.

Fuel adulteration can compromise quality and damage vehicle engines. It can also undermine fair competition among legitimate fuel businesses and expose consumers to financial losses.Farmers, traders and businesses could also feel the pressure

Fuel plays an important role in Kenya's agricultural and commercial sectors.

Farmers rely on transport to move produce from farms to markets, while some use diesel-powered machinery, irrigation equipment and generators. When fuel becomes more expensive, these activities can cost more to operate.

Traders who transport vegetables, cereals, milk and other products may also face higher delivery expenses.Kinyua points to possible long-term solutions

In explaining the government's broader response, Kinyua said stabilising pump prices remained a priority. He also referred to investment projects, including the Dangote East African Refinery project, as part of wider efforts to strengthen the petroleum sector and address price volatility.

Such projects may form part of longer-term discussions about regional petroleum supply, refining capacity and energy security.

However, the potential benefits depend on implementation, commercial arrangements, infrastructure, operating costs and the prices at which refined products can be supplied to the market.What Kenyans should expect in the coming weeks

The October–November prices will remain applicable until November 14, 2026, unless an authorised change is announced under the applicable regulatory framework.

Kinyua also warned of the possibility of continued pressure from international market conditions. The onset of winter in Western markets can increase seasonal demand for diesel and kerosene, potentially adding further pressure to international petroleum prices.