Kenya is facing renewed pressure over fuel prices as international crude oil prices rise sharply amid disruptions to global oil supplies. The situation is creating concern among motorists, businesses, transport operators and households because Kenya depends heavily on imported petroleum products. Although the latest prices set by the Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority (EPRA) for the period 15 August to 14 September 2026 have remained largely unchanged for petrol, the international oil market has become increasingly unstable, raising fears of higher fuel prices in the next pricing cycle. 

The pressure comes at a time when global oil markets are being affected by heightened tensions in the Middle East, disruptions to tanker movements and concerns over supplies through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude climbed above $100 per barrel during the week, with prices reaching levels not seen since earlier in the year. On September 11, Brent settled at about $104.61 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate stood at approximately $100.05. 

 *Current fuel prices in Kenya* 

According to EPRA's latest published maximum retail prices, Nairobi's price for super petrol is KSh214.03 per litre, while diesel is KSh217.86 per litre and kerosene is KSh191.38 per litre for the current pricing period. In Mombasa, petrol is KSh210.87 per litre, diesel KSh214.58 and kerosene KSh188.09. 

The fact that petrol prices have remained unchanged while diesel prices have fallen slightly provides some short-term relief to consumers. However, the stability at the pump does not mean that Kenya is insulated from the international oil shock. Fuel prices are reviewed monthly, and international crude prices, refined petroleum prices, exchange rates and other costs influence the eventual price calculations.

This means that sustained increases in international oil prices can eventually translate into higher prices for Kenyan consumers.

 *Why global oil prices are rising* 

One of the biggest factors behind the current pressure is the worsening geopolitical situation in the Middle East. Attacks involving tankers and energy infrastructure have disrupted normal petroleum flows and increased fears that global supplies could become even tighter.

The Strait of Hormuz is particularly important because it is one of the world's most strategic oil transportation routes. Disruptions in the area can have consequences far beyond the Middle East because large quantities of crude oil and petroleum products normally pass through the region.

Reuters reported that oil flows through the Strait had fallen dramatically, with concerns about continued disruption contributing to the sharp rise in international crude prices. 

The International Energy Agency has also warned that global oil supply could be significantly affected by continuing conflicts and disruptions in the Gulf. The agency expects a substantial decline in global oil supply in 2026 if the disruptions continue. 

 *Impact on Kenya's import bill* 

Kenya is particularly vulnerable to international fuel price movements because the country imports most of the petroleum products it consumes. When crude oil and refined petroleum products become more expensive internationally, Kenyan importers have to spend more money to secure the same amount of fuel.

That creates pressure on the country's foreign-exchange requirements.

Kenya already faces considerable pressure from debt repayments and other demands for foreign currency. Higher fuel import costs can therefore put additional pressure on the country's balance of payments and the Kenyan shilling.

If the shilling weakens against the US dollar at the same time that crude oil prices rise, the situation can become even more difficult. International oil transactions are generally conducted in US dollars, meaning that a weaker Kenyan shilling makes imported petroleum more expensive in local currency.

Transport sector faces major risks

The transport sector is likely to be among the first areas affected if fuel prices increase.

Matatus, buses, trucks, taxis and other commercial vehicles depend heavily on diesel and petrol. Higher operating costs can force transport operators to increase fares or reduce their operating margins.

For ordinary Kenyans, an increase in fuel prices could therefore translate into higher costs for travelling to work, school, markets and other destinations.

Long-distance transport could be particularly affected because trucks transporting goods from Mombasa to Nairobi, western Kenya, Rift Valley and other parts of the country consume significant amounts of diesel.

If the cost of transporting goods increases, businesses may pass those additional expenses to consumers through higher prices.

Food prices could also come under pressure

Fuel and food prices are closely connected.

Farmers use fuel to operate tractors, irrigation pumps and other machinery. Fuel is also needed to transport farm inputs such as fertiliser, seeds and chemicals to agricultural areas.

After crops are harvested, fuel is required to transport produce from farms to collection centres, markets and processing facilities.

Consequently, an increase in fuel prices can raise the cost of getting food from the farm to the consumer.

For a country where many households already face high living costs, further increases in food prices could put additional pressure on household budgets.

Businesses could face higher operating costs

Kenyan businesses are also watching the international oil market closely.

Manufacturers rely on fuel directly and indirectly. Some companies use diesel-powered generators or other fuel-based equipment, while almost all businesses depend on transportation and logistics.

Retailers, wholesalers, manufacturers, agricultural companies and construction firms could all be affected by higher transportation costs.

For small businesses, the impact can be particularly serious because many operate with limited profit margins. A significant increase in fuel costs could force some businesses to raise prices, reduce expenses or postpone expansion plans.

The result could be another wave of cost-push inflation, where higher production and transportation costs lead to higher prices for consumers.

Electricity generation is another concern

Fuel prices can also affect energy costs.

Although Kenya has a strong renewable-energy sector, including geothermal, hydro and wind power, thermal generation can still play a role when electricity demand is high or renewable sources are unable to provide sufficient supply.

Higher fuel costs can therefore increase the cost of operating thermal power plants.

Diesel and fuel-oil prices can also affect businesses that depend on backup generators, particularly during power interruptions.

This means that a prolonged increase in petroleum prices could have consequences beyond transport.

Government faces a difficult balancing act

The government will also face pressure as it tries to protect consumers while maintaining public finances.

If fuel prices rise significantly, there will likely be calls for measures to cushion households and businesses.

However, government intervention has financial implications. Subsidising fuel can reduce the immediate burden on consumers but may create additional pressure on public finances.

Kenya has previously experienced debates over the sustainability of fuel subsidies, with policymakers having to balance affordability against the cost to the Treasury.

At the same time, keeping fuel taxes and levies unchanged may mean that consumers bear more of the international increase.

 *Why diesel is particularly important* 

Diesel deserves special attention because it is heavily used in the commercial economy.

Trucks, buses, agricultural machinery, construction equipment and many generators rely on diesel.

The global diesel market is also under pressure. Refiners have been prioritising products such as diesel and gasoline amid disruptions to refining capacity, while global inventories have become increasingly tight. Reuters reported that refined fuel prices have risen sharply as refinery disruptions and shipping problems restrict supplies. 

This is important for Kenya because the country does not simply need crude oil; it needs reliable supplies of refined petroleum products.

 *Possible impact on inflation* 

Another major concern is inflation.

Fuel is an important component of the cost structure of the Kenyan economy. When fuel prices rise, the effects can spread through transportation, food, manufacturing, construction and services.

If the increase is large or prolonged, it could make it more difficult for inflation to remain under control.

Households with fixed incomes are particularly vulnerable because they cannot easily increase their earnings when the cost of essential goods rises.

Consumers may need to prepare for volatility

The current situation does not automatically mean that Kenyan pump prices will rise immediately.

The existing EPRA price cycle remains in force until 14 September 2026, and the latest published prices show petrol in Nairobi at KSh214.03 per litre and diesel at KSh217.86. 

However, international prices have changed significantly since the current pricing structure was announced. Continued crude oil prices above $100 per barrel could increase pressure on the next pricing review.

The final outcome will depend on several factors, including the average international petroleum prices used in the pricing formula, exchange-rate movements, refined-product prices and other components of the regulatory calculation.

The bigger picture for Kenya

The current fuel situation also highlights Kenya's vulnerability to external economic shocks.

Even when domestic policies remain unchanged, events thousands of kilometres away can affect the price paid by Kenyan consumers at petrol stations.

The latest developments have renewed discussions about energy security, domestic refining capacity and reducing dependence on imported petroleum products.

A proposed refinery project in Lamu is among the long-term ideas being considered to strengthen Kenya's energy position. However, such a project would take years to develop and cannot provide an immediate solution to today's international price pressures. Reuters reported that the proposed Lamu refinery would face challenges including financing, infrastructure and securing crude oil supplies.