The Kenya Meteorological Department has released its latest weather forecast for Tuesday, October 6, 2026, warning Kenyans in several parts of the country to prepare for rainfall, showers and possible thunderstorms as the October–December short-rains season gets underway. The department’s official daily forecast is valid for October 6, while its seven-day outlook covers the period from October 6 to October 12. 

Rainfall expected in several parts of Kenya

According to the latest forecasts, rainfall will be experienced in different parts of the country today, although the intensity and timing will vary from one region to another.

The forecast indicates that light to moderate rainfall is expected in parts of Kisumu, Siaya, Kericho, Kisii, Kakamega, Bungoma, Busia, Trans Nzoia, Kwale, Mombasa, Kilifi, Lamu, Taita Taveta, Garissa, Mandera, Wajir and Marsabit. Some of these areas may experience rain during the morning, while others could receive showers later in the day. 

The weather situation is particularly important because Kenya is now entering the October–December rainfall season, commonly referred to as the short-rains season. Kenya Met has projected generally wetter conditions in many parts of the country during this season, with rainfall expected to increase as October progresses. 

Nairobi and Central Kenya

Residents of Nairobi and neighbouring counties should also pay attention to the changing weather conditions.

The broader seven-day forecast indicates that Nairobi, Kiambu, Murang’a, Kirinyaga, Nyeri, Nyandarua, Embu, Meru and Tharaka-Nithi are among the areas expected to receive rainfall during the week.

Nairobi is expected to experience morning rains, afternoon showers and possible night showers in some areas during the forecast period. This means residents should not assume that a dry morning will necessarily continue throughout the day. 

The changing weather could affect motorists, pedestrians, businesses and outdoor activities, particularly during afternoon and evening periods when showers may develop.

Residents travelling across Nairobi should therefore remain alert to sudden changes in weather conditions, especially in areas where drainage systems can quickly become overwhelmed during heavy downpours.

Western Kenya and the Lake Victoria region

Western Kenya and areas around the Lake Victoria Basin are also expected to experience significant rainfall activity.

Counties including Kisumu, Siaya, Kakamega, Bungoma, Busia, Vihiga, Kericho, Kisii, Homa Bay and Migori are among the areas that could receive showers during the forecast period.

The weekly outlook indicates that some western counties may begin with sunny intervals before experiencing afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

This pattern is important for residents because thunderstorms can develop rapidly, creating hazardous conditions for people working outdoors, travelling or conducting activities in open areas.

Farmers in Western Kenya are also expected to benefit from the onset of the rains, particularly those preparing land for planting. However, farmers have been encouraged to rely on local agricultural extension officers for crop-specific advice rather than assuming that the arrival of rain automatically means every crop should be planted immediately. 

Rainfall along the Coast

The Coastal region is also expected to receive rainfall.

Mombasa, Kwale, Kilifi, Lamu and Taita Taveta are among the areas highlighted in the forecast.

Coastal areas may experience showers in the morning, with some locations expected to receive sunny intervals later in the day. The seven-day forecast also points to additional afternoon and night showers in several coastal areas.

Residents and visitors in Mombasa, Kilifi, Kwale and Lamu should therefore prepare for changing weather conditions, particularly when planning outdoor activities.

Northern Kenya to experience contrasting weather

Northern Kenya will experience a different pattern, with some areas receiving rainfall while others remain hot and relatively dry.

Parts of Garissa, Mandera, Marsabit, Wajir and Turkana are included among areas expected to receive rainfall during the forecast period. At the same time, sunny intervals are expected in parts of Isiolo, Samburu and Turkana during the afternoon. 

The region will also continue experiencing high temperatures. Kenya Met's seven-day outlook projects daytime temperatures of more than 35°C in parts of Marsabit, Samburu and Turkana.

Some of the highest temperatures are expected in northern towns, with Mandera projected to reach about 39°C, Lodwar 38°C and Wajir 37°C during the forecast period. 

This contrast between rainfall and high temperatures demonstrates why weather conditions can differ significantly across Kenya on the same day.

Thunderstorms and flash-flood concerns

The onset of the rains also brings concerns about thunderstorms and possible flooding.

Kenya Met has previously warned that isolated storms expected in parts of Mandera, Wajir, Marsabit, Tana River and Kilifi could lead to flash floods.

People living near rivers, drainage channels, low-lying areas and flood-prone locations are therefore encouraged to remain cautious whenever heavy rainfall occurs.

Motorists should also exercise extra care on wet roads because rainfall can reduce visibility and make roads slippery. Pedestrians should avoid crossing flooded roads or moving-water channels, even when the water appears shallow.

Cold nights in the highlands

While some parts of Kenya will experience high daytime temperatures, other areas will have particularly cold nights.

Kenya Met forecasts nighttime minimum temperatures of below 10°C in some elevated areas, including parts of Meru, Tharaka-Nithi, Nyeri, Trans Nzoia, Taita Taveta and Kajiado.

Some towns are expected to experience especially low nighttime temperatures. Nyahururu could fall to around 4°C, Kericho to 7°C, Eldoret to 8°C and Narok to 9°C.

Residents in these areas should therefore prepare for significant differences between daytime and nighttime conditions.

What the October rains mean for Kenya

The October rains are particularly significant because they mark an important agricultural season for many parts of the country.

Kenya Met has projected above-average rainfall across most parts of Kenya during the October–December season, although rainfall distribution will not be uniform. Turkana and some parts of West Pokot, Samburu and Marsabit are expected to experience closer-to-average rainfall compared with much of the rest of the country. 

The department has also noted that October marks the onset of the short rains across much of Kenya as the Intertropical Convergence Zone moves southwards across East Africa, increasing moisture and atmospheric convection. 

For farmers, the rains could improve soil moisture and support crop production. For water-resource managers, they could help replenish rivers, dams and other water sources.

However, excessive rainfall can also create challenges, including flooding, landslides, crop damage, road disruptions and damage to infrastructure.

Kenyans urged to follow weather updates

With weather conditions expected to change during the day and across different regions, Kenyans are encouraged to continue monitoring official updates from the Kenya Meteorological Department.

The department provides daily and seven-day forecasts designed to help households, farmers, businesses, travellers and emergency-response agencies plan ahead. 

Today's forecast is therefore a reminder that the country has entered a wetter period and that rainfall will not necessarily be evenly distributed. Some places may receive morning showers, others afternoon thunderstorms, while some areas could remain sunny for much of the day.

Overall, October 6 marks an important point in Kenya's transition into the short-rains season, with rainfall expected in numerous counties and more widespread wet conditions anticipated as the month progresses. Residents should remain weather-aware, farmers should use the forecasts when planning agricultural activities, and communities in flood-prone areas should take necessary precautions whenever heavy rainfall is forecast.

The Kenya Meteorological Department's official daily forecast for October 6, 2026 and its seven-day forecast for October 6–12, 2026 are available through its weather products.