The Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) plays a critical role in informing Kenyans about expected rainfall, temperature changes, thunderstorms and other weather conditions that may affect daily activities across the country. Its forecasts help farmers plan agricultural activities, guide transport operators, prepare communities for possible flooding and enable authorities to respond to weather-related emergencies.

During the October–December short-rains season, rainfall is particularly important to farmers and pastoral communities. However, the distribution of rain varies across the country, with some areas receiving frequent showers while others experience dry conditions or isolated rainfall.

For the week beginning Monday, 19 October 2026, the key issues to watch are the distribution of rainfall across western Kenya, the Rift Valley, the Lake Victoria Basin, the highlands and parts of eastern and coastal Kenya. The exact counties expected to receive rain, the timing of showers and the likely intensity should be confirmed against the department's latest official weekly forecast.Counties expected to receive rainfall

According to the published forecast, the areas to watch include:

1. Western Kenya and the Lake Victoria Basin

Counties: Kakamega, Vihiga, Busia, Bungoma, Kisumu, Kisii, Nyamira, Migori, Siaya and Homa Bay.

These counties are among the areas where rainfall is expected. Farmers, transport operators and residents should watch for changing conditions and possible afternoon storms.2. Rift Valley and North Rift

Counties: Kericho, Nandi, Bomet, Nakuru, Elgeyo-Marakwet, West Pokot, Baringo, Uasin Gishu and Trans Nzoia.

Rainfall in these agricultural areas could influence planting, crop development, livestock management and road conditions.

3. Central Kenya and the Mount Kenya region

Counties: Nyeri, Murang'a, Kirinyaga, Embu, Meru, Kiambu, Tharaka-Nithi, Laikipia and Nyandarua.

Residents should monitor local forecasts because rainfall can vary considerably between highland areas, valleys and neighbouring locations.Residents should monitor local forecasts because rainfall can vary considerably between highland areas, valleys and neighbouring locations.

4.Nairobi, eastern Kenya and the Coast

Counties: Nairobi, Machakos, Kitui, Makueni, Kajiado, Narok, Garissa, Tana River, Lamu, Kilifi, Mombasa and Kwale.

Rain is expected in some parts of these counties, rather than necessarily across every location. Isolated storms may develop during the forecast period.Western Kenya and the North Rift

Western Kenya and the North Rift are among the important areas to monitor as the week progresses. Trans Nzoia, Uasin Gishu and Nandi were highlighted for showers accompanied by thunderstorms and lightning on multiple days during the October 17–21 forecast period.

Kericho, Bomet, Kakamega, Vihiga, Bungoma, Kisii and Nyamira were also expected to experience afternoon rainfall, with moderate showers and thunderstorms possible on some days.

For farmers in these counties, rainfall may provide useful moisture for crops and pastures. However, heavy showers in particular locations could interrupt harvesting, transport and other outdoor activities. Residents should pay attention to local weather changes, particularly where thunderstorms develop. People travelling in the evening should allow additional time where rain affects visibility or road conditions.

Rainfall can also benefit agricultural activities and replenish local water sources, although the actual benefits will depend on the amount and distribution of precipitation.Nairobi and Central Kenya

Nairobi residents should prepare for changing weather rather than assume that the entire week will remain wet. The five-day forecast indicated sunny intervals during the mornings and afternoons from Saturday through Tuesday, with light showers expected at night on Monday and Tuesday. Light morning rain was also forecast for Wednesday.

In Kiambu County, sunny intervals were expected for much of the period, alongside possible light morning rain on Wednesday and showers at night on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday.Eastern Kenya and the Coast

The five-day outlook also indicated varying weather conditions in coastal and northeastern counties.

Mombasa was expected to experience sunny intervals during the morning and afternoon, with light showers at night on Saturday and Sunday. Kwale, Kilifi and Lamu were forecast to receive light morning showers on Sunday and Monday, while Tana River was expected to experience afternoon showers from Monday to Wednesday.

In Garissa, daytime temperatures were forecast to reach approximately 36°C on Tuesday and Wednesday, with afternoon showers possible on Monday and Wednesday. Wajir was expected to remain largely sunny, with maximum temperatures between 34°C and 36°C. The October–December period is an important rainfall season for many agricultural communities in Kenya. Timely weather information helps farmers determine when to plant, apply fertiliser, weed their fields and plan harvesting activities.

In counties such as Bomet, Kericho, Nandi, Uasin Gishu, Trans Nzoia and Nakuru, rainfall can support crop growth and pasture regeneration. Tea farmers may also use weather information to organise farm operations and the transportation of harvested leaves.

However, farmers should avoid interpreting a forecast of rainfall as a guarantee of sufficient moisture throughout the season. Rain may be concentrated in particular locations, and the amount received can differ significantly between neighbouring farms.Farmers are encouraged to follow official agricultural advisories, prepare drainage channels where necessary and avoid applying fertiliser immediately before heavy rainfall is expected.

Pastoral communities can also benefit from rainfall information when planning grazing and water access. Nevertheless, sudden heavy rainfall can create risks around seasonal rivers, low-lying grazing areas and poorly drained roads.Keep drainage channels clear. This can help reduce water accumulation around homes, businesses and public facilities.

Plan journeys carefully. Motorists and pedestrians should be cautious when roads become slippery or visibility deteriorates.

Protect vulnerable people. Children should be kept away from swollen streams, flooded areas and exposed outdoor spaces during storms.